There are two major market events coming up over the next two weeks, the first of which comes tomorrow[…] when the fed announces their decision on whether rates will change. With this economy so broken from historical norms since 2008 a rate increase while painful for the market in the short term may just be what helps move the economy to a new sustainable normal in the longer term. Rates have been held artificially low for a long time now and I don’t believe even the best prognosticators could really predict the longer term impact to a series of rate increases moving towards the real interest rate.
source: tradingeconomics.com
Instead as of late we’re stuck in this cycle of the fed hinting at rate increases, the market spooks, rates remain the same rinse and repeat. With the market looking past June and July for the most part and eyeing September as the next real possibility of a rate hike it would be great to see Yellen come in strong with a 0.25% bump tomorrow. Markets are resilient and most participants have the attention span of a gnat. Yes there would be a correction on the news but a recession, doubtful. The markets would be focused on the Brexit vote by Thursday. I’m eyeing XLF, if there is any news of a hike financial stocks should rise while many names fall.